As usual, the health authorities posted an incredibly misleading graph. The y-axis is ΔVE, but we are never actually given the "true" VE. What can actually be learned from their graph? Absolutely nothing. If VE changed by 120% for those 80+, but started at 10%, then it would only be 12%. If VE dropped by 50% in the 18-29 group, and started at 60%, it would now be 30%. The difference in magnitude is stark even though 120% is much more impressive than -50%. The 120% change may be nothing more than a statistical blip (given something like 90-95% of 80+ COVID cases are in the vaccinated, this seems likely!), and the -50% may represent a disturbing trend.
Right. Think of it from a buyer seller standpoint, if the product you are buying is so cheap, they paid you to take it home with you, it might mean that the product was not something you needed, it's something they wanted to get rid of.
Vaccine Effectiveness can never ever be reducing infections beyond 100% because it would imply it is reducing infections that never happened.
So the only logical conclusion is that the 0 baseline might be somewhere way below 0 and that the vaccine was spreading the virus for much longer than anticipated. The higher the peak goes, the lower the actual efficacy was at week 32.
The 0 baseline can be positive though. It's not an increase of effectiveness by 120%. It's an increase of 120% of baseline effectiveness. A negative number wouldn't actually make much sense here.
Sure, relative change = ((final value - initial value)/initial value)*100.
So if the initial value is 40%, and the final value is 88%, then we can just plug in ((88-40)/40)*100% = 120%. I think the limit of what initial VE could have been without a 120% jump in VE impossible is around 45%. The lower the VE, the less the VE has to jump to reach 120%.
I should say the effectiveness is relative to previous effectiveness. Not relative vaccine effectiveness. I think relative vaccine effectiveness would imply relative to the unvaccinated. If that makes sense.
Right, this graph I think is showing waning of vaccine effectiveness with respect to unvaccinated in the weekly UKHSA reports. Would you say that implies without question that the baseline effectiveness has to be less than zero (-60% at least) if the vaccine effectiveness is now 160%?
I know you want that data released, I think it wold be a good idea to email the professor and let him know what data you want and why.
I know he's a very good guy (as are his colleagues) but I had never heard him talk before. He's had a lot of success with FOI requests, presumably due to his status. He obviously knows what's going on. ;)
I did try to contact Prof. Martin Neil and Prof. Fenton twice. Thanks for sharing, I contacted them the first time I saw them get a sense of this in October so that I could tell them about two other mechanisms that I uncovered but I suppose they were flooded with mails.
My analysis also does not dismiss Asymptomatic reinfections outright and I know many people are firmly of the belief that this phenomenon is false positives or "casedemic". Unfortunately or fortunately, we will know this soon and will be settled when Denmark has to explain why "partially boosted" are reinfected.
Joel actually followed me on twitter, we have had a few good interactions, and also with Scott. If you want, I can either dig out their emails (or you can of course) or I could try DM'ing them on twitter for you. If I can do anything to help please let me know.
"Partially boosted" sounds like a punchline to a terrible Covid joke, surely? ;)
Geert Vanden Bossche is of the opinion that everyone who has had Covid, plus the vaxxed will all get Omicron (as we have discussed before, he is clearly talking about OAS but he keeps dropping the term ADE in there as well, which is quite unhelpful).
The next part I will write is purely for interest's sake. This seems to be a very fringe theory, and this is going way out of my understanding of virology (which I am very much NOT an expert in!) but if you missed it, you might find this interesting.
"SPOILER ALERT: SARS-CoV-2 is a circulating vaccine-derived-coronavirus (cVDCV) borne from work originally done at UNC, the only institution on earth that’s been attempting to design a live-attenuated vaccine for SARS, where they also pioneered engineering the sort of SARS-like chimeric coronaviruses that would be needed as templates for attenuation, and did their best to ignore or circumvent restrictions on gain-of-function research – obfuscation that’s still ongoing as they refuse to disclose genomic details relating to lab accidents that occurred during the above publicly-funded research.
Notorious researchers from the Wuhan Institute of Virology were associated with this controversial work on coronaviruses, and attempted to continue it into an experimental oral live-attenuated SARS-like vaccination program for the Chinese Military without accounting for the quantum nature of the math underlying quasispecies behavior – once they realized what was going on and deattenuation was already occurring out-of-control after the Wuhan Military Games, they reopened contact with Dr. Charles Lieber due to his work on virus-distinguishing nanowires, eventually leading to his arrest and the beginning of the largest and most coordinated cover-up in world history since both the pharmaceutical and defense entities involved in this research have a vested interest in attention being pulled away from serial passage and experimental vaccine work, as do the billionaire class that wants to use gain-of-function research for unrestricted tinkering into the human genome."
"The COVID-19 Pandemic is the result of a deattenuating SARS-like Live-Attenuated Vaccine (LAV), and neither vaccines nor natural immunity is going to stop it. The Omicron variant has regained the the ability for airborne transmission among mice because it’s returned far enough back toward it’s original highly-chimeric V-1000 form to “remember” the humanized mice that it was originally constructed on, which have some human immune genes spliced into their now mostly-murine genomes. When it first got out it jumped immediately into farmed mink all across the world because those are overlapping cousins with the lab ferrets it was deattenuated down on as it was weakened down into a LAV.
And now that it’s had nearly two years of circulation among every modern human society on the planet, and so like the T-1000 rebuilding itself from tiny pieces, it’s now gotten close enough back to its original form for airborne transmission among mice - ubiquitous hitchhikers that infest every single major human city on earth. There is now no way to stop the unchecked reversion of SARS-CoV-2 back to its original full-strength form except for stopping public transmission. Until the rest of the world is ready to accept that and move forward, there’s absolutely nothing at all else to be said."
I mention this because I'm not sure I 100% grasp what you are saying, but it seems related to me.
Thank you once again. I'm sorry about being evasive about what I fear, since fear spreads faster than truth and I'm aware that fear itself is the bigger enemy here which is allowing us to pummel through irrational decision after irrational decision. I plan on answering everything you've raised, I've not forgotten any of your replies, I'm just trying to make sure I am not wrong when I demand exactly what I demand from authorities about data. Since making a fuss is a one time thing, you cannot make a fuss twice unless you were right the first time. I have to be right the first time. For me to be right the first time, I'll have to know for sure what to expect and what it means if it's not that. I'm tired of our experts predicting one thing and it never really materializing. I'm trying to make sure I am not mirroring the academics and public health authorities in my own biases and trying to make sure are my fears driving me to suspect things that's easy to say but hard to prove.
But in short, I think the virus is doing something more than the two things you quoted. It's somehow causing the wrong people to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Vaccine driven or otherwise, it's managed to utilize the vaccine at least to the fullest extent to become fitter every single time a failed prediction causes a knee jerk reversal of policy that further erodes paths to herd immunity. Geert does mention ADE because it's a real risk. He doesn't mention OAS as often because as you will find out soon enough-if we continue on this path, the lack of an antigenic experience will be decisive. OAS will be a small subset of the problems that will be self resolved when huge viral loads reprogram the adaptive immunity but what happens to those who never faced the virus and have no experience at all? The children? The adaptive immune system will not work for some children as it's sophisticated and their innate immunity will do all the fighting. What's going to come from our babies will penetrate through people's immunity with antigenic experience or not. Nobody will be safe who doesn't have a strong mucosal innate immunity at the level of children at least. Think about this for a second- Why did Pfizer's trial fail? Did anyone predict this? Why do they need to inject 3 times now?
"Pfizer's child-sized vaccine fails to produce expected immunity in younger kids; company adds third dose to trials"
The only reason why this doesn't terrify people is because people are living in the present and not thinking 1 or even 2 steps ahead. I'm thinking 3 steps ahead and even that's really hard because we have to think about how our actions and what we do now changes how people will perceive the information they will see in 2 months and react to it.
Surely, it was not unpredictable to many that repeating that "disease is not severe in children" will be a terrible gamble to play because when that happens, people are primed to think the vaccines are going to save their children. This is going to happen. So this time is best utilized not arguing severity and age and risk stratification but demolishing the pillars on which the theory is build - "vaccine prevents infection". If we can demolish this, we will save the children from become orphaned by idiotic society forcibly involving them in this deadly game where they are being used by the virus to become stronger and stronger to the point of no return.
Sorry, one other question. What is driving this madness in your opinion? I'm afraid greed and imposing a control grid don't explain it. I'm very sure that depopulation is one of the ultimate goals, but do you think the people behind this are so completely insane they might actually be trying to wipe out humanity in it's entirety?
Thank you very much AW. I have read this several times.
It sounds like you are thinking of some kind of extreme Marek's Disease type-scenario wherein the vaxxed, unvaxxed and those with natural immunity are completely screwed, and the children are the vectors of the horrendous strain. If that is a correct assessment, then I absolutely understand your reticence in coming out with it.
As I said in my previous post, if I can assist you in any way, please let me know.
Thank you, you absolutely can help and I will tell you when I am ready. Thank you for the other links. I see Dr. Vanden Bossche has put out an article similar to this post. I'll add that I don't know anything about the mechanistic details of how ADE can happen but that it can and will happen because the Pfizer trials showed it happens and whether that results in higher virulence, is not a function of antibody levels contrary to what current thinking might suggest but a function of resource utilization pressure put on the virus by the infected host's immune system at that point in time. In children, this will always favor development of "virulence" because the virus has to work much harder to use up the same amount of resources to build a single copy of itself. The details do not matter, but just this fact that the virus has to work harder to propagate itself is disaster because if it's going to find other children in a similar situation due to recent vaccination or some other idiotic immune response homogenizing large scale intervention like full lockdown, separation from their grandparents, separation from peers etc. What will happen is a rapid immunological island will be developed where the virus will attain patheogenicity necessary to survive but the corresponding innate immune training needed in the isolated populations (adults, seniors) will be missing and rapid re-challenge will overwhelm their immune systems. If we are putting our parents in care homes and children in nursery and never allowing them to interact while vaccinating both with the same vaccine simulatenosuly, and one group has much better innate immunity than the other...you can imagine what pathway we have created for the virus.
It's better to not spread paranoia as fear kills faster than the virus as fear inhibits our rational faculties. If you feel you've understood this threat, then your duty is to hold on to that possibility responsibly because people will increasingly see news like these I link below in the future and our job is to help find the solution rather than spook people into hurting themselves even more by listening to incredulous public health authorities who are working like automatons maximizing vaccine coverage and not in an outcome based feedback loop.
Vaccinated Pregnant Mom with Vaccinated Hospital Workers, New Baby is infected within 2 hours with covid gets ARDS, pneumonia and stroke. Remember the Marek research? Vaccine Antibodies are passed down to children but are not sufficient to neutralize the virus shed by the unvaccinated chickens before they die and that eventually kills the vaccinated too?
"Katie started to become ill last night, and was diagnosed with COVID, as was her husband. Due with their 3rd daughter on December 21st, the decision was made to induce early and Katie gave birth to a beautiful little girl at 8:30am this morning (12/11) – Meira Maren. Sean is in isolation at home, caring for their two young daughters, Sadyia and Lorelei. Katie went through this birthing experience solo, and rocked it, like the badass mama she is. Two hours after Meira was born, however, she acutely developed respiratory distress. She was diagnosed with pneumonia, she had a stroke, and her COVID test came back positive. Katie is alone in the hospital, fighting COVID herself, and is unable to be with her new baby, who is currently in the NICU. My heart absolutely breaks for them."
The answer is that the over 100% effectiveness is carried over to the after life where they can request the difference be credited at rebirth.
The church of COVID, with Fauci as their messiah, is the fastest growing religion in the world. This may be the start of their afterlife mythology!
As usual, the health authorities posted an incredibly misleading graph. The y-axis is ΔVE, but we are never actually given the "true" VE. What can actually be learned from their graph? Absolutely nothing. If VE changed by 120% for those 80+, but started at 10%, then it would only be 12%. If VE dropped by 50% in the 18-29 group, and started at 60%, it would now be 30%. The difference in magnitude is stark even though 120% is much more impressive than -50%. The 120% change may be nothing more than a statistical blip (given something like 90-95% of 80+ COVID cases are in the vaccinated, this seems likely!), and the -50% may represent a disturbing trend.
How to lie with statistics 101.
Right. Think of it from a buyer seller standpoint, if the product you are buying is so cheap, they paid you to take it home with you, it might mean that the product was not something you needed, it's something they wanted to get rid of.
Vaccine Effectiveness can never ever be reducing infections beyond 100% because it would imply it is reducing infections that never happened.
So the only logical conclusion is that the 0 baseline might be somewhere way below 0 and that the vaccine was spreading the virus for much longer than anticipated. The higher the peak goes, the lower the actual efficacy was at week 32.
The 0 baseline can be positive though. It's not an increase of effectiveness by 120%. It's an increase of 120% of baseline effectiveness. A negative number wouldn't actually make much sense here.
Hmm. Can you show me with an example how we can get 100% relative vaccine effectiveness without a negative baseline vaccine effectiveness?
Sure, relative change = ((final value - initial value)/initial value)*100.
So if the initial value is 40%, and the final value is 88%, then we can just plug in ((88-40)/40)*100% = 120%. I think the limit of what initial VE could have been without a 120% jump in VE impossible is around 45%. The lower the VE, the less the VE has to jump to reach 120%.
I should say the effectiveness is relative to previous effectiveness. Not relative vaccine effectiveness. I think relative vaccine effectiveness would imply relative to the unvaccinated. If that makes sense.
Right, this graph I think is showing waning of vaccine effectiveness with respect to unvaccinated in the weekly UKHSA reports. Would you say that implies without question that the baseline effectiveness has to be less than zero (-60% at least) if the vaccine effectiveness is now 160%?
Hi AW, I highly recommend this interview with Professor Normal Fenton:
https://brandnewtube.com/watch/mathematician-uncovers-disturbing-mortality-data_fIZmA9TjuoGAfip.html
I know you want that data released, I think it wold be a good idea to email the professor and let him know what data you want and why.
I know he's a very good guy (as are his colleagues) but I had never heard him talk before. He's had a lot of success with FOI requests, presumably due to his status. He obviously knows what's going on. ;)
His contact info is here: https://www.normanfenton.com/contact
Hope this helps.
I did try to contact Prof. Martin Neil and Prof. Fenton twice. Thanks for sharing, I contacted them the first time I saw them get a sense of this in October so that I could tell them about two other mechanisms that I uncovered but I suppose they were flooded with mails.
My analysis also does not dismiss Asymptomatic reinfections outright and I know many people are firmly of the belief that this phenomenon is false positives or "casedemic". Unfortunately or fortunately, we will know this soon and will be settled when Denmark has to explain why "partially boosted" are reinfected.
There is also Joel Smalley and Scott McLachlan. As far as I know Joel is on Substack:
https://metatron.substack.com/
Joel actually followed me on twitter, we have had a few good interactions, and also with Scott. If you want, I can either dig out their emails (or you can of course) or I could try DM'ing them on twitter for you. If I can do anything to help please let me know.
"Partially boosted" sounds like a punchline to a terrible Covid joke, surely? ;)
Geert Vanden Bossche is of the opinion that everyone who has had Covid, plus the vaxxed will all get Omicron (as we have discussed before, he is clearly talking about OAS but he keeps dropping the term ADE in there as well, which is quite unhelpful).
The next part I will write is purely for interest's sake. This seems to be a very fringe theory, and this is going way out of my understanding of virology (which I am very much NOT an expert in!) but if you missed it, you might find this interesting.
"SPOILER ALERT: SARS-CoV-2 is a circulating vaccine-derived-coronavirus (cVDCV) borne from work originally done at UNC, the only institution on earth that’s been attempting to design a live-attenuated vaccine for SARS, where they also pioneered engineering the sort of SARS-like chimeric coronaviruses that would be needed as templates for attenuation, and did their best to ignore or circumvent restrictions on gain-of-function research – obfuscation that’s still ongoing as they refuse to disclose genomic details relating to lab accidents that occurred during the above publicly-funded research.
Notorious researchers from the Wuhan Institute of Virology were associated with this controversial work on coronaviruses, and attempted to continue it into an experimental oral live-attenuated SARS-like vaccination program for the Chinese Military without accounting for the quantum nature of the math underlying quasispecies behavior – once they realized what was going on and deattenuation was already occurring out-of-control after the Wuhan Military Games, they reopened contact with Dr. Charles Lieber due to his work on virus-distinguishing nanowires, eventually leading to his arrest and the beginning of the largest and most coordinated cover-up in world history since both the pharmaceutical and defense entities involved in this research have a vested interest in attention being pulled away from serial passage and experimental vaccine work, as do the billionaire class that wants to use gain-of-function research for unrestricted tinkering into the human genome."
https://harvard2thebighouse.substack.com/p/understanding-covid-19-and-seasonal
Also:
"The COVID-19 Pandemic is the result of a deattenuating SARS-like Live-Attenuated Vaccine (LAV), and neither vaccines nor natural immunity is going to stop it. The Omicron variant has regained the the ability for airborne transmission among mice because it’s returned far enough back toward it’s original highly-chimeric V-1000 form to “remember” the humanized mice that it was originally constructed on, which have some human immune genes spliced into their now mostly-murine genomes. When it first got out it jumped immediately into farmed mink all across the world because those are overlapping cousins with the lab ferrets it was deattenuated down on as it was weakened down into a LAV.
And now that it’s had nearly two years of circulation among every modern human society on the planet, and so like the T-1000 rebuilding itself from tiny pieces, it’s now gotten close enough back to its original form for airborne transmission among mice - ubiquitous hitchhikers that infest every single major human city on earth. There is now no way to stop the unchecked reversion of SARS-CoV-2 back to its original full-strength form except for stopping public transmission. Until the rest of the world is ready to accept that and move forward, there’s absolutely nothing at all else to be said."
I mention this because I'm not sure I 100% grasp what you are saying, but it seems related to me.
Thank you once again. I'm sorry about being evasive about what I fear, since fear spreads faster than truth and I'm aware that fear itself is the bigger enemy here which is allowing us to pummel through irrational decision after irrational decision. I plan on answering everything you've raised, I've not forgotten any of your replies, I'm just trying to make sure I am not wrong when I demand exactly what I demand from authorities about data. Since making a fuss is a one time thing, you cannot make a fuss twice unless you were right the first time. I have to be right the first time. For me to be right the first time, I'll have to know for sure what to expect and what it means if it's not that. I'm tired of our experts predicting one thing and it never really materializing. I'm trying to make sure I am not mirroring the academics and public health authorities in my own biases and trying to make sure are my fears driving me to suspect things that's easy to say but hard to prove.
But in short, I think the virus is doing something more than the two things you quoted. It's somehow causing the wrong people to be in the wrong place at the wrong time. Vaccine driven or otherwise, it's managed to utilize the vaccine at least to the fullest extent to become fitter every single time a failed prediction causes a knee jerk reversal of policy that further erodes paths to herd immunity. Geert does mention ADE because it's a real risk. He doesn't mention OAS as often because as you will find out soon enough-if we continue on this path, the lack of an antigenic experience will be decisive. OAS will be a small subset of the problems that will be self resolved when huge viral loads reprogram the adaptive immunity but what happens to those who never faced the virus and have no experience at all? The children? The adaptive immune system will not work for some children as it's sophisticated and their innate immunity will do all the fighting. What's going to come from our babies will penetrate through people's immunity with antigenic experience or not. Nobody will be safe who doesn't have a strong mucosal innate immunity at the level of children at least. Think about this for a second- Why did Pfizer's trial fail? Did anyone predict this? Why do they need to inject 3 times now?
"Pfizer's child-sized vaccine fails to produce expected immunity in younger kids; company adds third dose to trials"
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/17/health/pfizer-vaccine-children/index.html
The only reason why this doesn't terrify people is because people are living in the present and not thinking 1 or even 2 steps ahead. I'm thinking 3 steps ahead and even that's really hard because we have to think about how our actions and what we do now changes how people will perceive the information they will see in 2 months and react to it.
Surely, it was not unpredictable to many that repeating that "disease is not severe in children" will be a terrible gamble to play because when that happens, people are primed to think the vaccines are going to save their children. This is going to happen. So this time is best utilized not arguing severity and age and risk stratification but demolishing the pillars on which the theory is build - "vaccine prevents infection". If we can demolish this, we will save the children from become orphaned by idiotic society forcibly involving them in this deadly game where they are being used by the virus to become stronger and stronger to the point of no return.
Sorry for sending three separate messages, you will probably find this Substack useful and may have an ally here as well:
https://bartram.substack.com/
Sorry, one other question. What is driving this madness in your opinion? I'm afraid greed and imposing a control grid don't explain it. I'm very sure that depopulation is one of the ultimate goals, but do you think the people behind this are so completely insane they might actually be trying to wipe out humanity in it's entirety?
Thank you very much AW. I have read this several times.
It sounds like you are thinking of some kind of extreme Marek's Disease type-scenario wherein the vaxxed, unvaxxed and those with natural immunity are completely screwed, and the children are the vectors of the horrendous strain. If that is a correct assessment, then I absolutely understand your reticence in coming out with it.
As I said in my previous post, if I can assist you in any way, please let me know.
Thank you, you absolutely can help and I will tell you when I am ready. Thank you for the other links. I see Dr. Vanden Bossche has put out an article similar to this post. I'll add that I don't know anything about the mechanistic details of how ADE can happen but that it can and will happen because the Pfizer trials showed it happens and whether that results in higher virulence, is not a function of antibody levels contrary to what current thinking might suggest but a function of resource utilization pressure put on the virus by the infected host's immune system at that point in time. In children, this will always favor development of "virulence" because the virus has to work much harder to use up the same amount of resources to build a single copy of itself. The details do not matter, but just this fact that the virus has to work harder to propagate itself is disaster because if it's going to find other children in a similar situation due to recent vaccination or some other idiotic immune response homogenizing large scale intervention like full lockdown, separation from their grandparents, separation from peers etc. What will happen is a rapid immunological island will be developed where the virus will attain patheogenicity necessary to survive but the corresponding innate immune training needed in the isolated populations (adults, seniors) will be missing and rapid re-challenge will overwhelm their immune systems. If we are putting our parents in care homes and children in nursery and never allowing them to interact while vaccinating both with the same vaccine simulatenosuly, and one group has much better innate immunity than the other...you can imagine what pathway we have created for the virus.
It's better to not spread paranoia as fear kills faster than the virus as fear inhibits our rational faculties. If you feel you've understood this threat, then your duty is to hold on to that possibility responsibly because people will increasingly see news like these I link below in the future and our job is to help find the solution rather than spook people into hurting themselves even more by listening to incredulous public health authorities who are working like automatons maximizing vaccine coverage and not in an outcome based feedback loop.
Vaccinated Pregnant Mom with Vaccinated Hospital Workers, New Baby is infected within 2 hours with covid gets ARDS, pneumonia and stroke. Remember the Marek research? Vaccine Antibodies are passed down to children but are not sufficient to neutralize the virus shed by the unvaccinated chickens before they die and that eventually kills the vaccinated too?
https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-for-katie-sean-and-new-baby-meira-maren
"Katie started to become ill last night, and was diagnosed with COVID, as was her husband. Due with their 3rd daughter on December 21st, the decision was made to induce early and Katie gave birth to a beautiful little girl at 8:30am this morning (12/11) – Meira Maren. Sean is in isolation at home, caring for their two young daughters, Sadyia and Lorelei. Katie went through this birthing experience solo, and rocked it, like the badass mama she is. Two hours after Meira was born, however, she acutely developed respiratory distress. She was diagnosed with pneumonia, she had a stroke, and her COVID test came back positive. Katie is alone in the hospital, fighting COVID herself, and is unable to be with her new baby, who is currently in the NICU. My heart absolutely breaks for them."