Delayed:UKHSA Report Delta Plus spreads higher rate in Vaccinated (expected)

Something I delayed from publishing from October 30th because I thought it’s not useful to anyone. However, in the light of recent talk of variants (B.1.1.529), I’m seeing the repeat of the same arguments which are flatly incorrectly from an empirical standpoint. Here’s another view I’m presenting where I’m trying to show that variants are neither benign nor are they a cause for discrimination against unvaccinated and most of all, they are certainly not a reason to “Boost”!.

— Old post.

The sound of silence. Plenty of days since this question was asked on twitter directly to the person releasing the Variants of Interest in UK report.

Someone challenged the experts to explain and they folded. This is normal because they are uncomfortable with simple mathematics.

The uncomfortable truth, as hypothesized before: UK Report shows that Delta variant AY.4.2 is spreading even better in the vaccinated than unvaccinated.

  1. By close to what I’d seen from Pfizer’s “blinded” trials [- 12%] efficacy.

  2. And it’s a higher death rate than what they’ve calculated of .49% which is the lower bound, upper being .82%

    A conspicuous error which I will use to calculate the real death rate .64% in folks who got AY.4.2 since they refuse to release prior exposure stratified data.

  1. It could be worse than that because we still don’t know

    • the years of life lost (YLL) for the dead subgroup.

      • Say we knew the YLL was higher for Delta-Plus, it would almost certainly mean it’s killing younger people and this could be a sign of higher lethality but being masked by crude death rates.

      • If the YLL is lower, it could mean it’s killing older people but at a faster rate, so it’s an example of a variant that’s found a niche and going for the lowest hanging fruit hard

      • If the YLL is the same then it’s a situation where a breakup of who died would unhide any clusters. For example, say the kids who were recently vaccinated passed it on to their parents in the UK. Both demographics are seeing explosive rise of cases in the vaccinated. Then we would expect some deaths in that age group, as well as elderly.

    • Notice The Following: Emergency Admissions Numbers same but higher deaths.

      • Exclusions include people who tested positive after they died which means they never even made it to the hospital.

      • This is not proof if variant becoming less virulent, it’s the opposite. And the only reason people are ignoring it because it disproportionately affects Vaccinated at the moment. Why is that so? Well. We’ll see soon enough.

    “If our elderly die at home we will not tell you they died from a variant even if we swab and find out at post-mortem.”

  2. We don’t ever stop the health authorities from lying to the public that the rise of variants within a sub-population is never the unvaccinated but the vaccinated! Here we see the attempt by UKHSA to pretend this is not a problem.

  3. Secondary Attack Rates is higher for the variant. Why? Kids infecting moms not random travelers. This is due to homologous vaccine match (Pfizer). Not higher transmission but lower resistance to infection in vaccinated when challenged perpetually by viral shedding at high levels.

    UK Infections by @VictimofMaths on twitter

    We have to stop the fear mongers from misleading the public consistently. They will just use bad reasoning from the skeptical side as a straw man to further persecute and discriminate the people that never vaccinated and contributed to population level selection pressure.

    Most importantly, we are pretending that the variants are not that bad when our own vaccinated family and friends are most likely to die from it and they will cover it up because they don’t want to tell people that transmission and selection happens in the vaccinated.

    Here’s Delta odds ratio of infection from the Summer. Did you know that 2.42x higher chance of delta infection in Double vaccinated than unvaccinated? Why didn’t you know? Because we are being told that these variants are nothing for the vaccinated and only the unvaccinated spread them and the unvaccinated respond poorly by suggesting “it’s not that bad”.

    Table from Supplement to: Lopez Bernal J, Andrews N, Gower C, et al. Effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines against the B.1.617.2 (delta) variant. N Engl J Med 2021;385:585-94. DOI: 10.1056/NEJMoa2108891. https://www.nejm.org/doi/suppl/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891/suppl_file/nejmoa2108891_appendix.pdf

    People who do not participate in coordinated mass application of drug pressure (people who haven’t been injected or infected) cannot conceivably play any role at all in the selection (cultivation, filtration) or the transmission (uninfected person cannot replicate or shed virus) of variants that achieve general fitness with respect to vaccinated population.

    Resistance to a treatment can only be due to the people who participated in the mass exposure to the drug and the disease. This cannot be the case for the unvaccinated, it is by definition the Vaccinated and especially the FULLY vaccinated that contribute to this kind of evolution.

    I welcome any feedback especially with respect to corrections and attribution.

    Update!: I agree with this formulation by Dr. Malone.

  4. This response tells us everything we need to know about this pandemic.

    Notice the 2.4m fully vaccinated (highest in SA) in the same place where all the new infections are.

    The #PfizerVariant?


    UKHSA Report https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1029715/technical-briefing-27.pdf

    This post is still under construction because I still have work left to do figuring out the role of incidence density change at the point of vaccination and seropositivity as an underlying risk, then onward transmission.

AlmostWrong’s Newsletter
What if the Negative 10.5% Vaccine Effectiveness explained the AY.4.2 Delta Plus ~10% Transmissibility Advantage causing an outbreak?
(Edit: Only a draft idea will write a proper article with citations and credits at some point) Shortest TLDR Attempt: Delta Plus AY.4.2 Strain transmissibility is a temp…
Read more