Something I delayed from publishing from October 30th because I thought it’s not useful to anyone. However, in the light of recent talk of variants (B.1.1.529), I’m seeing the repeat of the same arguments which are flatly incorrectly from an empirical standpoint. Here’s another view I’m presenting where I’m trying to show that variants are neither benign nor are they a cause for discrimination against unvaccinated and most of all, they are certainly not a reason to “Boost”!.
— Old post.
October 29th 2021
The sound of silence. Plenty of days since this question was asked on twitter directly to the person releasing the Variants of Interest in UK report.
Someone challenged the experts to explain and they folded. This is normal because they are uncomfortable with simple mathematics.
The uncomfortable truth, as hypothesized before: UK Report shows that Delta variant AY.4.2 is spreading even better in the vaccinated than unvaccinated.
By close to what I’d seen from Pfizer’s “blinded” trials [- 12%] efficacy.
And it’s a higher death rate than what they’ve calculated of .49% which is the lower bound, upper being .82%
A conspicuous error which I will use to calculate the real death rate .64% in folks who got AY.4.2 since they refuse to release prior exposure stratified data.
It could be worse than that because we still don’t know
the years of life lost (YLL) for the dead subgroup.
Say we knew the YLL was higher for Delta-Plus, it would almost certainly mean it’s killing younger people and this could be a sign of higher lethality but being masked by crude death rates.
If the YLL is lower, it could mean it’s killing older people but at a faster rate, so it’s an example of a variant that’s found a niche and going for the lowest hanging fruit hard
If the YLL is the same then it’s a situation where a breakup of who died would unhide any clusters. For example, say the kids who were recently vaccinated passed it on to their parents in the UK. Both demographics are seeing explosive rise of cases in the vaccinated. Then we would expect some deaths in that age group, as well as elderly.
Notice The Following: Emergency Admissions Numbers same but higher deaths.
Exclusions include people who tested positive after they died which means they never even made it to the hospital.
This is not proof if variant becoming less virulent, it’s the opposite. And the only reason people are ignoring it because it disproportionately affects Vaccinated at the moment. Why is that so? Well. We’ll see soon enough.
“If our elderly die at home we will not tell you they died from a variant even if we swab and find out at post-mortem.”
We don’t ever stop the health authorities from lying to the public that the rise of variants within a sub-population is never the unvaccinated but the vaccinated! Here we see the attempt by UKHSA to pretend this is not a problem.
Secondary Attack Rates is higher for the variant. Why? Kids infecting moms not random travelers. This is due to homologous vaccine match (Pfizer). Not higher transmission but lower resistance to infection in vaccinated when challenged perpetually by viral shedding at high levels.
We have to stop the fear mongers from misleading the public consistently. They will just use bad reasoning from the skeptical side as a straw man to further persecute and discriminate the people that never vaccinated and contributed to population level selection pressure.
Here’s Delta odds ratio of infection from the Summer. Did you know that 2.42x higher chance of delta infection in Double vaccinated than unvaccinated? Why didn’t you know? Because we are being told that these variants are nothing for the vaccinated and only the unvaccinated spread them and the unvaccinated respond poorly by suggesting “it’s not that bad”.
I welcome any feedback especially with respect to corrections and attribution.
Update!: I agree with this formulation by Dr. Malone.
Joost Broekers @JoostBroekers
November 26th 2021
This response tells us everything we need to know about this pandemic.
Sakaguchi Hitoshi @nzm8qs
November 25th 2021
Notice the 2.4m fully vaccinated (highest in SA) in the same place where all the new infections are.
November 24th 2021
Mia Malan @miamalan
October 19th 2021
UKHSA Report https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1029715/technical-briefing-27.pdf
This post is still under construction because I still have work left to do figuring out the role of incidence density change at the point of vaccination and seropositivity as an underlying risk, then onward transmission.
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