Dec 30, 2021·edited Dec 30, 2021Liked by AlmostWrong
This is why I always lump partially and fully vaccinated together. This is why I include the first 14 days in most of my calculations. This is why private VE was about 40-50% over the last year (less in other places) and public VE was negative (in other words, the vaccine caused cases which meant the chance of getting a case in the vaccinated was higher even if it was slightly lower than the unvaccinated... Ie. Private VE).
Not sure if that makes sense I probably would need a long post or article to fully explain, but in any case, calculating VE for a few months post second dose is idiotic at best.
Dec 30, 2021·edited Dec 30, 2021Liked by AlmostWrong
Note that 0-14 days post 1st jab is counted as UNVACCINATED! So, at least HALF of the unvaccinated deaths can be safely moved over to the partially VAXXED. Then redraw the charts and have a second look.
The only time this doesn't happen is when they publish vaccination data by report date instead of vaccination date and are not very good at reporting. Thanks for doing this. In case you're not on Twitter - https://twitter.com/mdccclxx/status/1476568452869599242?s=20
The part I don't have quite pinned down for my own understanding and so can't communicate effectively on, is the fact that there are so many reports that the unvaccinated make the majority of hospitalizations and deaths. Or in the UK, the rates are 4 to 5 times higher for hospitalization and death. The fact some get caught in the vaccination process doesn't seem that it would fully account for it. Then again maybe I'm not looking at these graphs close enough.
This is why I always lump partially and fully vaccinated together. This is why I include the first 14 days in most of my calculations. This is why private VE was about 40-50% over the last year (less in other places) and public VE was negative (in other words, the vaccine caused cases which meant the chance of getting a case in the vaccinated was higher even if it was slightly lower than the unvaccinated... Ie. Private VE).
Not sure if that makes sense I probably would need a long post or article to fully explain, but in any case, calculating VE for a few months post second dose is idiotic at best.
Note that 0-14 days post 1st jab is counted as UNVACCINATED! So, at least HALF of the unvaccinated deaths can be safely moved over to the partially VAXXED. Then redraw the charts and have a second look.
The only time this doesn't happen is when they publish vaccination data by report date instead of vaccination date and are not very good at reporting. Thanks for doing this. In case you're not on Twitter - https://twitter.com/mdccclxx/status/1476568452869599242?s=20
The part I don't have quite pinned down for my own understanding and so can't communicate effectively on, is the fact that there are so many reports that the unvaccinated make the majority of hospitalizations and deaths. Or in the UK, the rates are 4 to 5 times higher for hospitalization and death. The fact some get caught in the vaccination process doesn't seem that it would fully account for it. Then again maybe I'm not looking at these graphs close enough.